SENDOUT

Gas Supply Planning and Optimization

SENDOUT provides a detailed assessment of the entire supply portfolio—along with operational and economic constraints and parameters—and evaluates the impact of potential operating, weather, and price conditions

SENDOUT is used on behalf of more than 100 energy companies as the foundation for their gas supply planning and portfolio optimization process. Our comprehensive solution includes a detailed supply portfolio optimization system that incorporates scenario analysis and uncertainty/volatility modeling. It provides a detailed assessment of the entire supply portfolio — along with operational and economic constraints and parameters — and evaluates the impact of potential operating, weather, and price conditions. Ultimately, SENDOUT provides the foundation for a comprehensive and prudent gas supply planning process, assuring cost minimization, revenue maximization, and system reliability.

SENDOUT IS COMPRISED OF TWO INTEGRATED COMPONENTS:

1) Optimization Module
The Optimization Module provides gas supply portfolio optimization, contract sizing, and scenario analysis SENDOUT model harnesses a powerful linear programming (LP) engine for scenario analysis. The objective function seeks to minimize system costs and maximize revenue opportunities throughout the study horizon. The module simultaneously considers thousands of contract parameters, and economic and operational constraints to produce detailed short-term through long-term gas supply dispatch, tactical, and strategic plans. For a particular scenario of operating conditions, the Optimization Module provides two optimization types:

Standard Optimization: Determines the optimal use of the existing resource portfolio to meet projected load requirements in a least-cost manner based on variable costs only (considers fixed costs sunk).
Resource Mix Optimization: Evaluates and optimally sizes potential contracts and sales opportunities while meeting load requirements in a least cost manner based on the fixed and variable costs associated with optional resources.

2) Monte Carlo & Risk Assessment Module
This module provides weather and price simulation for risk-based uncertainty planning. Ventyx’s most recent development initiative incorporates Monte Carlo functionality to generate hundreds of weather/price simulations, providing a probabilistic framework for all critical portfolio decisions. This approach presents valuable insight by evaluating resource decisions across the entire range of possible outcomes, rather than focusing on a select few scenarios.

The resulting analysis assesses the impact of market volatility on the portfolio’s performance, identifying areas of both opportunity and risk.

The Ventyx comprehensive gas planning solution differentiates itself from traditional portfolio analysis. Traditional analysis typically relies on a few scenarios as a proxy to support important decisions. For example, with respect to weather (demand), relying on normal, design cold, and design warm provides a limited view of the portfolio under those specific conditions. In contrast, Ventyx’s solution considers the probability and implications when weather and price conditions fall between and outside the range of the typical planning scenarios. The probabilistic approach provides additional metrics for better resource decisions, including expected value, variability, and probability.

KEY FEATURES:

Easy scenario and simulation creation with minimal data manipulation.
Fast simulation and optimization run-times
User-friendly, flexible and intuitive interface specifically designed for the gas industry
A comprehensive list of data items and parameters to accurately model gas system intricacies
Flexible data management encompassing various input options and integration with Microsoft Excel
Customizable reports/graphs and seamless output download to Microsoft Excel, Access, Visio, text, or HTML files
Network diagramming and portfolio schematic visualization feature
Over 100 comprehensive system reports, including dispatch and gas cost forecasts. SENDOUT

KEY BENEFITS:

Supports a proven and defendable resource planning process
Evaluate multiple decision criteria simultaneously
Provides optimization of portfolio utilization and costs within operating constraints
Maximizes financial results by managing weather and price risks
Increases revenues by assessing capacity release and sales opportunities
Reduces regulatory costs through improved compliance and procedures
Helps sustain a consistent and repeatable planning methodology
Compares multiple scenario results and dispatch decisions side by side
Improves analytical quality with a sophisticated, comprehensive, and flexible approach to gas supply planning