PROMOD IV

Generator And Portfolio Modeling System With Nodal LMP Forecasting And Transmission Analysis

PROMOD IV is the industry-leading Fundamental Electric Market Simulation software, incorporating extensive details in generating unit operating characteristics, transmission grid topology and constraints, unit commitment/operating conditions, and market system operations.

PROMOD IV algorithms can be exercised in the following modes, depending upon the scope, timeframe, and simulation resolution that aligns with the decision focus.

NODAL

Locational Marginal Price (LMP) Forecasting – PROMOD IV performs a security constrained unit commitment and dispatch that is co-optimized with operating reserve requirements, similar to how ISOs set schedules and determine prices. LMP may be reported for selected nodes, user-defined hubs, or load-weighted or generator-weighted zones; this may be further broken down into a reference price, a congestion price (showing individual flowgate contributions to congestion), and a marginal loss price, Financial Transmission Right (FTR) and Congestion Revenue Right (CRR)

Valuation – PROMOD IV provides all market participants and energy companies with the powerful tools needed to quantify market prices, identify binding constraints, and evaluate economic impacts of the specific constraints that have strategic significance to specific portfolios and business needs.

Transmission Congestion Analysis – PROMOD IV provides market participants and energy companies with the ability to quickly evaluate the economic benefit, the increase/decrease in hourly/monthly congestion, and the increase/decrease in reliability metrics.

ZONAL

Environmental Analysis – PROMOD IV simulates, on an hourly basis, the applicable market area under a variety of operating or market conditions. This information is then used to quantify the operating risks associated with each facility and develop a detailed forecast of market prices and system operation under various weather conditions.

Generation and Transmission Asset Evaluations – PROMOD IV delivers integrated production costing and transmission planning capabilities to assist users in evaluating the operating cost impact of changes to supply or demand. By providing accurate assessments of electric production costs and reliability, PROMOD IV enhances decision-making for product pricing, fuel planning and budgeting, resource planning, rate analysis and support, plant improvements, and capacity and energy transaction scheduling.

PORTFOLIO

Fuel Strategy and Budgeting – PROMOD IV can assist users in evaluating the economics of supplies, mixtures, and fuel-related effluents. PROMOD IV also helps evaluate bids on the merits of their price, economics, availability, dispatchability, transmission path, contract terms, and more.

Asset Valuation – PROMOD IV can be utilized for asset valuation in three different ways:

Analyze near-term, bus-level marginal proces, congestion, and losses based on security constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch, using published ISO poweflow cases, transmission upgrades, and contigency information.
Perform long-term, transportation-based simulation of regional markets with robust hourly unit commitment and dispatch decisions, using the capacity expansion determined by Market Power.
Use the MarketWise feature to dispatch a unit against the hourly price forecast from Market Power, with full consideration of profit opportunities, start costs, and unit operational constraints.

RELIABILITY

System Reliability (Multi-Area Reliability) – System Reliability calculates loss-of-load probability, expected unserved energy, and loss-of-load hours for a system in which inter-tie limitations and pooling agreements constrain the extent to which different areas within a system can or will support one another. The model can also be used to determine the effective capacity support provided to each area by virtue of its interconnections.

Applications for System Reliability include:

Assessing the availability of support from neighboring areas
Evaluating the need for additional transmission capability
Integrated planning within a power pool
Identifying relatively reliable or unreliable areas within a network

Analytical Probabilistic Dispatch (APD) – PROMOD IV offers an hourly generation scheduling model based on Booth-Belariaux techniques with approximated chronological representation. This technique is very fast and truly probabilistic in nature.

KEY BENEFITS

Provides marketplace information through ability to determine the effects of transmission congestion, fuel costs, generator availability, bidding behavior, and load growth on market prices and portfolio value.
Maximizes profits by assessing market opportunities and evaluating individual transaction costs and feasibilities
Analyzes complexities and risks associates with transmission access to plant locations, power contracts, and unit production costs
Evaluates competing bids, plant schedules, transmission services, generation costs, and historical performance
Performs an 8760-hour commitment and dispatch recognizing both generation and transmission impacts at the bus-bar (nodal) level
As part of the PowerBase Suite, integrates with MarketPower’s capacity and long term market valuation, as well as Strategist’s resource planning and optimization capabilities
Forecasts hourly energy prices, unit generation, revenues and fuel consumption, bus-bar and zonal energy market prices, external market transactions, transmission flows and congestion prices. Uses an hourly chronological dispatch algorithm that minimizes costs (or bids) while simultaneously adhering to a wide variety of operating constraints
Integrates with PSS/E, PSLF, and PowerWorld to examine AC power flow analysis for select hours